Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ category

Worldwide Bear Market? Probably

September 9th, 2015

My most recent blogs – August 10 and August 11 – highlighted the unprecedented volatility that has characterized the U.S. stock market over the past year. I concluded that “…the potential for a major market collapse increases.” The market took out a down payment on such a collapse with its 1100 Dow point freefall in […]

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Volatility Continues

August 11th, 2015

Just a quick follow-up to yesterday’s analysis. Written on the weekend, we posted “Volatility Reigns” yesterday. The equity market volatility and indecisiveness profiled in that analysis was dramatically in evidence again yesterday and today. Before the market opened yesterday, traders celebrated the news that Warren Buffett was making a major purchase of Precision Castparts. The […]

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Volatility Reigns

August 11th, 2015

Through more than 46 years in the investment business, I have never before seen such extraordinary price volatility as has characterized the U.S. stock markets over this past year. In that time, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has alternated directions 33 times by amounts ranging from 300 to 2000 points. Twenty-nine of those moves have […]

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QUARTERLY COMMENTARY

July 28th, 2015

The second quarter saw a continuation of the frenetic volatility that has characterized the stock market environment since September of last year. The range in the second quarter was tighter, however, than in preceding months (back and forth from roughly 17,600 to 18,350 on the Dow) with essentially no net change over the three-month period. […]

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Fear At The Fed

June 18th, 2015

I strongly suspect that Janet Yellen is afraid to pull the trigger on the first rate hike.  Having passed on earlier opportunities to dismantle her debtor-friendly Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP), she has painted herself deeper and deeper into a corner.  Raising short rates will likely lead to rate rises all along the yield curve, […]

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“China orders banks to keep lending to insolvent provincial projects.” That front page headline in the May 16-17 weekend edition of The Financial Times shines a spotlight on one of history’s most perilous financial conditions. Since the end of the 1990’s, we have been warning of the extreme danger posed by excessive debt. In this […]

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Since July of last year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has experienced 16 price moves ranging from 600 to 2000 points, eight up and eight down. Twelve of those moves have taken place in the last five months, each lasting an average of just two weeks. This is highly abnormal market action, clearly demonstrating a […]

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March marked the sixth anniversary of the Fed–sponsored stock market rally that, along with the housing recovery, has resuscitated the balance sheets of the wealthiest segment of the American population. Having benefited from mountains of essentially free money and generous accounting forbearance, the nation’s major banks were rescued from insolvency. The Fed’s intended “wealth effect” […]

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For more than two centuries, Americans have pointed with great pride to this country as a bastion of democratic free markets. Many have looked with antipathy at European economies tinged with socialism and with disdain at the centrally planned economies of communist countries. Whether out of convenience or desperation, we have recently come to welcome […]

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The theme for investors in 2014, at least in the United States, was “Don’t worry; be happy.” Anyone who let worries about slowing global growth, unprecedented debt levels, Ebola, terrorism or Russia’s theft of Crimea from Ukraine keep them from fully invested positions sacrificed performance. While worries about deflation put downward pressure on bond yields, […]

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